Bureau of Labor Statistics postpones key data report

 

Why it matters: The BLS — charged with collecting critical data on employment, prices and more — did not explain the reasoning for the delay or when it might ultimately be released.

  • There is heightened concern about the future of U.S. statistics, including the politicization and accuracy of crucial data that affects the stock market and interest rates.

Zoomin: The BLS said on Friday that the annual release of consumer expenditures data — initially set for Tuesday — would be "rescheduled to a later date."

  • "We will update users when more information is available," the notice said.
  • The Bureau of Labor Statistics did not respond to a request for a comment. Neither did The Department of Labor, which oversees the statistics agency.

Thebig picture: The data offers key insights about consumer activity in any given year, including expenditures, income and demographic information.

  • It is the only "federal household survey to provide information on the complete range of consumers' expenditures and incomes," the BLS website says.
  • Crucially, the data is also used to determine the weighting of specific goods and services in the Consumer Price Index for the year ahead.

Theintrigue: The release was postponed last year, but the BLS offered more details then, including that the data would be released two weeks later.

  • "The only real difference is that the 2024 press release explicitly noted a new publication date and also indicated that the delay was due to an error that they had to correct," Inflation Insights' Omair Sharif tells Axios in an email.
  • "Today's press release doesn't give any information on what caused the delay or when it'll be released, so that is a bit odd," he added.

What they're saying: "I suspect they just didn't have the release totally ready to go," says former BLS commissioner William Beach, adding that it was a "tricky data release."

  • "I would worry, however, if there's a further delay. There are so many vacant positions at BLS that I'm surprised their release record so far has been very good," says Beach, whose term covered Trump's first stint in the White House and part of the Biden presidency.

Betweenthe lines: The agency is under tremendous strain, with staffing shortages and limited resources.

  • It is also under unprecedented attack from the White House. President Trump fired the agency head last month after huge revisions to previous months' data confirmed a slowing labor market.
  • The White House has nominated economist E.J. Antoni to lead the agency. Some prominent conservative economists have bashed Antoni as partisan and unqualified.

"I think we are all concerned now about the future of our country's economic data," Erika McEntarfer, the former BLS commissioner abruptly fired by Trump, said this week at Bard College.

  • "I can vouch for the accuracy and independence of the work of the agency up until the moment I was fired ... but in terms of the future: it is an uncertain moment," McEntarfer said.

BLS has already cut back on data collection for specific CPI categories and certain regions, a result of staffing shortages and budget cuts.

  • Plummeting survey response rates has wreaked havoc on jobs data at statistics agencies around the world, including the U.S.
  • Bloomberg reported this week that the agency was looking to ramp up staff to collect price data in major metro areas.
  • The Labor Department's internal watchdog launched a probe into BLS economic data collection earlier this month, citing challenges the agency "encounters collecting and reporting closely watched economic data."

Whatto watch: "At the end of the day, if the annual data is finalized before year-end, then it should be plenty of time to incorporate the new weights for use with the release of the January 2026 CPI in mid-February," Sharif says.

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