Statistics and the power of turning data into insights

 

As the data intensity of grain enterprises and grain-related research amplifies at exponential rates, analytical statistical methods have kept pace through a series of strategic GRDC investments.

Statistics – the arm of mathematics that to the layperson might seem as dry as last year’s stubble – is in fact one of the most powerful tools available in today’s suite of digital technologies. It is statistics that transform observations and data into the breakthrough insights that are driving modern cropping.

From soil’s complex influences on yields through to detecting pioneering gene combinations in breeding trials, statistics profoundly underlie gains in farm productivity.

To ensure that analytical capability is commensurate with industry needs, GRDC has made a series of special investments in this field. These occur under the umbrella of the Statistics for the Australian Grains Industry (SAGI) initiative, which evolved in 2023 to Analytics for the Australian Grains Industry – AAGI.

In February 2025, the third investment phase of the SAGI initiative was analysed for its impacts. The analysis found that SAGI during phase III became more integrated within the grains R&D space and proved a powerful driver of innovation.

The challenge

Science needs data to progress and digital technology makes it possible to capture and store truly enormous quantities of it. Processing data in ways that generate new understanding requires more sophisticated statistical and analytical know-how.

In response to the big data future looming on the horizon in 2003, GRDC launched an initiative specifically dedicated to statistics. This resulted in the launch of SAGI’s first phase – a national initiative led by the University of Wollongong.

This phase focused on providing statistical support and training to national research programs, including the National Variety Trials (NVT) and various breeding programs.

However, as the rate of technological advancement accelerated, SAGI’s remit needed to expand. This came to include:

  • efficient and effective experimental design for larger and more complex trials to ensure that results are sound, reliable and obtained efficiently
  • data analysis from an ever-expanding range of sensors both on-farm and at trial sites
  • predictive modelling technology that includes artificial intelligence and machine learning-based tools that mesh datasets across genetic, environmental and farm management data
  • yield prediction and optimisation tools that support decision-making on-farm
  • resource management, especially related to soil moisture data and fertiliser application decisions
  • environmental monitoring, including greenhouse gas emissions as part of national inventory and reduction strategies
  • risk management, including the use of historical farm data to assess risks associated with weather patterns, pest outbreaks and even market movements.

The response

By 2016, GRDC faced a vastly expanded need for advanced statistical tools. In response, SAGI phase III was restructured to meet this need. While the national node was retained, phase III saw the introduction of 3 additional nodes: SAGI-West, headed by Curtin University; SAGI-North, at the Queensland Department of Primary Industries; and SAGI-South, at the University of Adelaide.

Between 2016 and 2023, the 3 new nodes received a total of $46 million (present value) in GRDC and in-kind investments. This money sought to provide statistical design and analysis advice and training to improve the quality of both laboratory and field research.

Support was provided to research institutions, government departments and grower groups. This took the form of statistical advice on experimental design, data collection, storage and analysis.

The nodes also developed and delivered training programs for researchers, students and growers. These focused on upskilling participants in statistics and experimental design. They also developed novel statistical methods and software for agricultural research applications.

The impact

Recently, the completed phase III investments to the regional nodes were analysed by Dr Marit E Kragt and Dr Natasha Pauli of the Centre for Agricultural Economics and Development at the University of Western Australia (UWA).

The analysis found that SAGI regional nodes supported at least 162 GRDC investments between 2016 and 2023. SAGI-West supported 56 projects, SAGI-North 64 projects and SAGI-South 42.

This included advice on robust experimental designs and appropriate analytical methods for GRDC-supported trials.

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